How rarity of a cap is calculated

Rarity is an indicator used to estimate how common, uncommon, or hard to find a cap is.

It is not a subjective assessment or an opinion, but an automatic calculation based on various data from the catalog and community activity. The goal is to provide a useful reference so that each user can better understand the relative availability of a cap.

Which data are taken into account

To calculate rarity, the system analyzes several factors that, combined, estimate the scarcity and difficulty of obtaining a cap.

The main ones are:

1. How many users have the cap

This is the most important factor.

The fewer users who have it, the scarcer it is considered. Conversely, if it appears in many collections, its rarity decreases.

2. How many users are looking for it

This factor reflects demand.

If many people are interested in obtaining it, the perceived rarity increases. A highly sought-after cap is usually harder to obtain in practice.

3. How many duplicates are available

This value helps measure real availability for exchange.

If many users have duplicates, it is considered easier to get and therefore less rare.

4. Activity within exchanges and offers

The system also takes into account how the cap behaves in the real market among users.

For example, it can evaluate if it often appears in trades, if it is held back, or if it generates interest when offered. These signals help better understand to what extent a cap is truly accessible or hard to get.

5. Age within the catalog

The time the cap has been part of the catalog is also considered.

If a cap has been available for a long time and still appears in few collections, this reinforces the idea that it is genuinely difficult to find.

How to interpret the result

The system combines all these factors and generates a value from 0 to 100:

• 0 indicates a very common cap

• 100 indicates an extremely rare cap

Based on this value, the cap is classified into an indicative category:

• Very common

• Common

• Uncommon

• Rare

• Very rare

• Legendary

This allows you to quickly understand its relative position within the whole catalog.

Weight of each factor

Main formula

Scarcity │ 35% │

Demand │ 20% │

Market Activity │ 15% │

Availability │ 15% │

Age │ 15% │

Sub-weights within each component

Demand (20%):

- Relative ratio (looking/have in collection): 60%

- Absolute ratio (looking/total users): 40%

Market Activity (15%):

- Frequency in trades: 30%

- Retention (rejected trades): 20%

- Appeal in offers (bids): 25%

- Value as currency: 25%

Important thresholds

- Availability: only calculated if <40% of users have the cap, otherwise = 0

- Age: only applies if <20% of users have it, otherwise = 0

- Projection: applies to caps less than 180 days in the catalog

Not all factors have equal influence.

The main weight falls on the cap’s presence in collections. In other words, the most determining criterion is knowing the proportion of users who have it.

Additionally, the following also influence:

• the demand (how many are looking for it),

• the real availability (duplicates and ease of exchange),

• the market activity,

• and, to a lesser extent, the age.

This means rarity does not depend on a single value but on a balanced combination of scarcity, interest, and real availability.

Why a new cap may seem very rare

When a cap has just been added to the catalog, it is normal that few people have it yet.

This might make you think it is very rare, when in reality it is just new.

To avoid misinterpretations, the system takes its initial behavior into account and adjusts the calculation as the cap starts to appear in collections.

In other words: a new cap is not automatically considered definitively rare; instead, its value adapts according to how it evolves over time.

Why rarity can change

Rarity is not fixed. It can rise or fall as community data change.

For example:

• if more users get the cap, rarity may decrease,

• if available duplicates disappear, rarity may increase,

• if more users look for it, it may also increase,

• or if exchange activity changes, this can also have an effect.

That is why it is a living indicator, reflecting the catalog’s situation at any given time.

What the trend indicates

Besides the current value, it can also show if the rarity of a cap:

• is rising,

• is stable,

• or is falling.

This trend helps understand if a cap is becoming more scarce or, on the contrary, more common over time.

For example:

• if more and more people have it, its rarity tends to decrease,

• if it remains little present and interest grows, the trend may be upward.

An indicative reference, not an absolute truth

Rarity is a support tool to better interpret the catalog, but it does not replace the personal judgment of each collector.

There are caps that might have a special value for historical, aesthetic, thematic, or personal reasons that are not always fully reflected in a numeric index.

Therefore, rarity should be understood as a dynamic and indicative reference, useful for contextualizing a cap, but not as a sole or definitive evaluation.